The modeling will determine the optimal path of development of the power system. In March of this year, the international technical assistance project “Removing Barriers to Wind Power Development in Belarus” completed the main stage of organizing the modeling of various options for the development of the energy system balance of Belarus, taking into account the development of wind power.
To date, energy balance models have been developed as part of the project document of BelTEI RUE. These models are based on the indicative development indicators of Belarus until 2030 adopted during the first stage and imply variability. They rely on different scenarios, which are divided into three types:
▪ optimistic scenario based on indicators defined by the National Sustainable Development Strategy (NSSD) of the Republic of Belarus for the period up to 2030;
▪ a baseline scenario based on indicators adopted by the Concept of Energy Security of the Republic of Belarus;
▪ pessimistic scenario, which implies minimum indicative indicators and a minimum level of development of renewable energy sources in our country.
During the preparation of the document, BelTEI RUE conducted a comprehensive analytical work, on which the modeling was built:
− modern approaches and best international and domestic experience, business practices, energy and renewable energy regulation policy have been studied;
− the possibilities of using existing and long-range energy depot systems for balancing generating sources of RES in the conditions of operation of the power system of Belarus have been considered;
− the possibilities of disposal of solid waste with energy recovery have been considered;
− an analysis of the activities of the Comprehensive Plan for the Development of the Electricity Sector by 2025 has been carried out taking into account the commissioning of the Belarusian nuclear power plant;
− the volume of outdated energy equipment, which should be taken out of service, and the feasibility of replacing it with RES installations in the conditions of operation of NPP has been determined;
− the potential of the block stations to regulate the load curve has been calculated;
− analysis of the energy consumption covering schedule on an average working day has been carried out and the required power of the energy storage systems has been determined;
− the process of modeling the annual power system states has been described.
The presented models of the balance of the power system include a certain amount of involvement of renewable energy sources, including wind power.
Currently, this work is coordinated with the stakeholders and the optimal energy system development way until 2030 is determined with the priority significant participation of renewable energy.